为了提高国际上通用的疏散时间模型(简称经验模型)的预测精度和应用价值,以某高校疏散案例为研究基础,通过调查采样建立185组数据的实测样本。结合影响人员疏散行为和疏散时间相关因素,运用统计软件SPSS 17.0对样本进行回归分析,建立疏散时间回归模型。以回归模型为基础,将个体属性综合为群集属性,求取修正系数并对经验模型进行修正、检验。最后运用优化模型,对某高校体育馆工程消防疏散性能化设计方案进行改进。结果表明,经验疏散时间模型缺乏考虑群集属性对疏散效率的影响,其运用具有一定条件约束;利用修正系数对经验疏散时间模型进行修正,将提高模型仿真度,有利于对性能化消防方案的评价和改进。

In order to improve the prediction precision and application values of evacuation time model (briefly called an empirical model) that is generally accepted by the whole world, the influences of individual attributes (including both natural and social attributes) are analyzed. Based on regression analysis and the evacuation investigation on a large university gymnasium, a 185-set-data sample is established. Combined with the factors that affect evacuation behavior and time of individuals, the regression model of crowd evacuation time is built with the statistical software, SPSS 17.0. The individual attributes are consolidated into crowd attributes and the correction coefficient 'k' is solved on the premise of regression model. The empirical model is revised and examined through the utilization of correction coefficient 'k'. Finally, a fire evacuation design for a university stadium project is analyzed based on the optimized empirical model. The results indicate that with the use of regression analysis and correction coefficient 'k', the weakness of empirical model involving lack of consideration on the influences of crowd attributes could be effectively overcome, and both the prediction accuracy and application values of evacuation time model would be improved.